Monday, April 18, 2011

Another Orange Revolution

I must confess, I had written the NDP off as a coalition possibility or a form of strategic voting to indicate I didn't actually like having a say in who ran the country, but after seeing their massive jump in the polls, I've had to re-evaluate them as a contender.

A few surveys recently have put them directly under the conservatives, here in translated English or available here for the unfettered French,  but despite the significant sample size of two thousand the survey is undermined by its sampling bias. The survey was conducted on the Internet which is not only unscientific but also results in a younger demographic responding, who are already shown to have a more left-wing bias, or may not even be old enough to vote at all.

A more accurate view is available here, with the most interesting development being the large hike in popularity right after the debate, which public opinion typically credits them as 'winning', inasmuch as anyone can really 'win' standing around in a room hollering at each other through scarcely-related soundbites. This site breaks it down even further but might cause information overload. 

Historically, though, this vote-teasing is nothing new for the NDP, who suffer from blue ballot syndrome as the election approaches and voters get cold feet, similar to the 2008 election where voters fawned over the NDP's performance post-debate, but left them hanging at the polls.

There is still time to solidify this lead, however, so the next few weeks should be hectic for Layton.It is interesting to note that polls havwe shown up to 70% of Canadians would support a coalition; a strategic alliance could import the legitimacy they need; but who to party with? The Bloc seems a favored choice but might not use the full benefit of their lead in Quebec - one does not get elected on Quebec alone. If they could convince green party supporters to vote NDP we might see some life without compromising their vision.

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